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The Future of EU-Ukraine Relations

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Four scenarios on the state of EU-Ukraine Relations in the year 2030 were developed by a Scenario Team from across Ukraine. Scenarios do not attempt to predict the future, but offer different pictures of possible and plausible futures. They can be helpful in enabling decision-makers and stakeholders to adapt their strategies in order to achieve or avoid a certain scenario. Two scenarios describe a process of Ukraine moving successfully towards the European Union. In the »Highway«-Scenario, a democratic Ukraine becomes a full EU member by 2030. On the »Speed-limit Road«, significant advancements in adopting European standards are made, turning the country into a »bridge« between the EU and Russia. On the »Bumpy Road«, relations are characterized by ambiguity, with little progress on the integration path. In the fourth scenario, relations have reached a »Dead-end Road«, with democracy in Ukraine on the retreat and a stronger integration with the Eurasian space.